RISING tension between Madrid and Catalonia reached a new peak
yesterday with the announcement by the Catalan president, Artur Mas,
that he plans to hold an independence referendum on November 9th
next year. Flanked by leaders of parties that hold two-thirds of seats
in the region's parliament, Mr Mas launched the biggest challenge to
Spain's internal structure in recent history. The Catalans, he said, are
“a people who want to decide for themselves on their own future”.
But
those expecting Catalonia to follow Scotland, which votes in September
on separation from the United Kingdom, into a formal and binding
decision on independence must think again. Unlike Britain's prime
minister, David Cameron, the Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, does
not want a referendum or any other kind of vote that Mr Mas, who terms
his proposal a “consultation”, might organise. The government of Mr
Rajoy’s conservative Popular Party (PP) government can and will block
it. “I guarantee this referendum will not happen,” Mr Rajoy said. He has
the backing of Spain's main opposition party, the socialists, and will
have the proposed referendum suspended by the constitutional court as
soon as it is formally approved by Catalonia's government or parliament.
Mr
Mas is expected to bow to the court's decision and, so, cancel the
referendum. He can then be expected to declare that the next Catalan
regional elections will be, in effect, a plebiscite on independence. But
those elections might not be held until 2016. It is impossible to
predict the result or what would happen afterwards, especially as the
Madrid government may have changed by then. Spain's thorniest issue, in
other words, will not be resolved for years.
The new stand-off
takes the Catalan problem into uncharted waters. The vast majority of
Catalans favour a referendum. But Spain's constitution from 1978 does
not offer them a right to self-determination. Nor, insists Mr Rajoy,
does it allow any kind of consultation or referendum that is not
approved by Madrid.
Polls show that, in the space of just a few
years, support for independence has shot up to 56%. But pollsters also
see a significant number of waverers. Enric Juliana, an influential
columnist of La Vanguardia, a Barcelona newspaper, says many
Catalans fluctuate daily, waking up separatist and going to bed
federalist. The latter is a solution proposed by Spain's socialists, but
frowned on by Mr Rajoy. And even within Mr Mas's nationalist
Convergence and Union (CiU) coalition there is a strong sector opposed
to outright independence.
With his coalition divided, Mr Mas is
increasingly dependent on the separatist Catalan Republican Left (ERC)
party for support. ERC currently props up his minority government and
would have forced elections if Mr Mas had reneged on his promise to call
a referendum on independence next year. Polls also show that ERC is now
more popular than CiU and could oust it from its historic position as
Catalonia's most popular party. The independence row has fractured the
Catalan political panorama, driving voters towards parties more clearly
defined as pro or anti independence.
There is nothing like the
word “no”, pronounced from Madrid, for inflaming separatist passions.
And blocking the referendum does nothing to resolve the growing pressure
from Catalans for a change in their relationship with Spain. Mr Rajoy
has no plan for fixing the problem. The socialist proposal for
constitutional reform to turn Spain into a federal country (a fix that
suits some Catalans) would eventually require backing from the PP.
Solutions, it seems, will have to wait until after a general election in
2015. In the meantime, the fractures appearing in Catalan society, and
between Catalans and other Spaniards, will grow.